tv Road to the White House CSPAN October 6, 2013 10:00pm-11:01pm EDT
they've been helping us organize the event, monitoring the risks and anticipating the unpredictable and i think they are getting some credit for that which i'm delighted about. i went to visit them on the fourth floor of our building last week and they were all busy like bees and a bit surprised i would come down to visit them actually. it's great. i know they are enjoying a good time and good food as well which is not bad.
affecting the financial sector at large. five years ago, the global economy avoided what has since been called the great depression. five years on, the journey is not complete. the bulk of the crisis is gradually lifting. and we can see that it leaves multiple new transitions that are at work. two in particular standouts, it's a new pattern of economic transitions as well as that financial sector transition that i referred to. our job is to deal with crises. and we're pretty used to it. ebb and flow of the economic cycle, recession generally lasting for one year or two, sometimes a little longer, but not much. but this one is clearly a little unusual, if only at the
time it takes to be resolved. and the transitions that i'm taking -- talking about are not going to last for one or two years, they're going to probably last a decade. if not longer. the they are different also because they're not just national transition, we have seen a global crisis and we are seeing global transitions. so we're moving from the great depression from the great transition. and this is where the imf can best be used. as i said, 188 finance ministers, 188 governors of central banks? why 188? because we have 188 members at the imf. we provide a platform of
cooperation as well as the tools. those tools will include -- that's what you think of when you think imf, lending tools. they provide financial resources. but also provide analysis, policy recommendations on the bilateral basis, on the multilateral basis, more and more focusing on broader groups of countries. we provide them, that is not as well known, a lot of technical assistance and capacity building. that's what the imf is about. frnls support, facilities, surveillance activity, and technical assistance and capacity building for countries. the one thing i'm sure of is
through that great transition, if policy makers do it right, it will be a positive transition. but equally if they don't apply the right set of policies and don't coordinate, it might very well be derailed. so what i would like to focus on now is the new economic patterns we're sealing and i'll take you around the world and i'd like to narrow the focus ohhen the financial sector transitions we're seeing at work and very much in progress. i will take you to the developed economics first. then sagging economies. and low income economies and touch on the arab countries in transition where we're seeing major development.
first we start with the advanced economies. in a few days' time, the imf will be releasing the latest forecast. but overall, the global outlook remains still to this day subdued. yet, we're seeing signs of hope. growth is looking up. financial stability is returnin returning. fiscal accounts are looking healthier. i'm saying that with a caveat, not sending the current development in this economy, and i will return to that in a moment. nowhere is it and i hope clearer will it be than in the united states. the house holds are in better
shapes, the private sector engine is humming again. yet, this year, growth is going to be too low. it will be below 2%. in the united states. due to too much fiscal adjustment that is not tailored as it needs to be. it should ease up next year with growth that should be about 1% higher. let me pause for a second here. there's some pretty good heads of very large companies that often have to decide where they're going to have to invest. the criteria that is used by the founder and longtime president of heineken, you heard about that company? his take as to where to invest in a brewery was actually a region and decided to invest where he would see as large a
sector of light at night. population. now, there are other ceos, particularly in the housing sector, that is certainly turning around at the moment, who would look at the horizon of a city. if they see many cranes as we see for the moment on the horizon, they would say, okay, turning around. i only say that because there are wonderful economic models, wonderful analysis, a lot of history of economics that matters when you look at an economy. but you also have to look up or down depending on where you are. practicalities, reality, actually, matter a lot. away from the u.s., the euro area. but everybody has been sort of
expecting to pick up and turn around. there's an area where one out of two of you will not find a job. 50% of unemployment rate of young people at the moment in countries like greece, like spain, and that's a major challenge for them. but for all of us. this challenge is nested in a much more sweeping transition as the euro area pushes on with transition, with integration, based on the belief that the
strongest house is the one that is built together, doing away with wars. we're witnessing the march of history. with hiccups and bumps on the road. but it is happening and that integration is under way. japan. japan too is going through transition. anyone from japan in the room? you are so diverse and all over the world. japan is turning around because of the policies adopted by prime minister abey. stimulus? better horizon of what would be done with the consolidation with the reasonable announcement of the increase of the consumption pacts, the initial one, not the
most people think the u.s. monetary policy is likely to reach soon a turning point where the exit of unconventional measures will begin soon. in our view, this term needs to be managed very carefully. because the transition of monetary policy into a more traditional role will affect not only the u.s. market, but also other markets around the globe. so in our view, it has to be done gradually. it has to be done with good communications, and hopefully, in a dialogue with other central bankers and policy makers. as i said, it will be part of our landscape for a long time, that monetary policy. now beyond the united states, i mentioned the euro area, a central bank as well, which still has a bank to maneuver and
can use it. and you have japan where clearly the program in the way will certainly be needed as well for quite a while. but what is clear is that in all three regions, the other policy makers have to make use of that time and space that is given by the central bankers with unconventional monetary policies. they have to act. they can't say let's just find this liquidity and the situation is turning around. no, they have to take measures. what can they do? what tools can they use? it's financial, fiscal, and structural. all three areas for each of the three. starting with financial. the financial tools have to be
used in particular by the area. why is that? there's still parts of europe that is being hobbled by weak banks, by high corporate debt, and by the financial system. this is raising the cost of loans to small and medium enterprises by 1% to 2% in stressed regions. now, think about your loan. if you -- if the interest rate was raised by 2%, it would mean a lot more exposure when on liability with the proper flow of money and whether there's too much fragmentation. it's imperative in our views that european banks be restored to health by assessing the balance sheets and filling out the capital that it revealed. what else in they should push
ahead with the banking union and make the entire area in the eurozone safer and sounder. that's for the financial tool. turning now to the fiscal tool. upset about the u.s. fiscal policy, slow down but hurry up. yeah, that's a bizarre proposition. slow down? what we mean by that is don't do too much up front. the fiscal policy does not have to be massive right away. not too much contraction. there is too much at the moment. but hurry up. in the medium term, there has to be an anchored in the confidence of people that the fiscal consolidation is going to take place so that the trajectory of the u.s. debt is turned not upside but down side.
in the mittedst of a big fiscal challenge -- slow down and hurry up is not an easy thing to do. in the midst of that political uncertainty over the budget, over the debt ceiling, does not help. the government shutdown is bad enough, but failure to raise the debt ceiling would be far worse. and could very seriously damage not only the u.s. economy, but also the entire global economy. you know, people around the world are confused. they're bemutzed, but they're certainly not amused by what is happening in this country because it will affect the global economy if it were to materialize. but i personally have huge trust in policy makers and i hope very
strongly they will find a way to resolve this issue. now this is mission critical this be resolved as soon as possible. mission critical. japan, also needs a credible plan to bring down its debt. does any of you know how much is the japanese debt relative to gdp? roughly? what did you say? huh? >>. [ participant off-mic ] >> 250%. pretty good, pretty close. that's roughly $90,000 per capita. each japanese baby was born, not too many of them, unfortunately, that's another issue, is born with a debt burden of $90,000. the initial consumption tax increase i was referring to
earlier that has been announced by prime minister abe is welcome. it's one step. it has to go further and enough fiscal measures anchored in the medium term so that the debt turns downward. fiscal financial efforts i just mentioned must be completed. all of the advanced economies i have mentioned by structural measures, different measures. they know they can pay off where it matters most. in the euro area, for instance, there's lots of barriers, lots of vested interests, and lots of constrains that apply to both the product market and the labor market. that was addressed properly. if, for instance, the service directive was applied uniformly and well in all countries, that could boost gdp by 3% and 3.25% after five years. that's a big jump.
if you look at japan now, i was referring to babies. well, i'll refer to female employment. if japanese women were given the same access to the labor market as the average in the g-7 countries of which they are a member, it would boost gdp by about 4% by 2013. that's a big number for an economy that needs additional workforce, because it is simply aging and not a very open economy when it comes to immigration. now, we should remember -- why did i spend so much time on these advanced economies. they together represent 40% of global gdp. it's actually important and it also affects through the various channels of financials and trade the rest of the world. and we're going to look at the
rest of the world. let me turn to the emerging markets first and look at the low-income countries and the arab countries in transition. emerging markets of today are much stronger than in the past. having come a long way since the crisis of the '80s, of the '90s, which were tough, but in it, somehow, a blessing in disguise. because they had to restructure. they had to consolidate. they had to weave all of the unhealthy parts of the economy out of their banking system. so they moved towards more flexible exchange rates, higher reserve, lower external date. for the first five years, they contributed about 80% of the growth of global gdp. what is the ultimate goal of these emerging market countries? countries in transition by any means? well, they want to make sure
that the living standards of the population is improved and much closer to that of the advanced economies. they are on their way. they are facing new obstacles. momentum is slowing with growth lower than in 2010. they are growing very, very fast. some are saying it's a healthy slowdown in the pace of growth, which is very likely to be the case for some of them. now, a lot of that slowdown for the emerging market economies is attributable to the economic cycle. and clearly the tapering of the monetary policy has its role to play. but it also is more deeply rooted in structural impediments. this country is also facing a more challenging external environment. what happened over the last five years? as i said, the central bankers rescued the global economy and
in doing so, a lot of money was moved around. and a lot of capital flew into those emerging market economies. bond inflows alone rose by over $1 trillion, which is more than 2% points of gdp a year for the recipient countries. now that markets are getting jittery over the perceived end of easy money, the financial tide is starting to recede. it's receding in different ways depending on the countries. that's where the fundamentals of the economies have a role to play. if you look at korea, there has been capital inflow, but not much capital outflow. there's a reason for that. and this is really exposing tensions that were less visible when times were good, including some easy credit, growing corporate debt. by our estimates, the turbulence
since last may could reduce gdp by .5% to 1% in major emerging markets. some are more vulnerable than others. turning to policies, what does that mean? what can policy makers decide? what proof can they use? well, the immediate priority in our view is to try to ride that turbulent moment as smoothly as possible. currencies should be allowed to depreciate. liquidity can help deal with dysfunctional market behavior. looser monetary policy can help, although there's not much room to maneuver in countries with significant inflation pressures which is the case for countries like russia, like india, like indonesia, or like brazil. likewise, there's not much space left for fiscal policies because
some of the countries have higher debt and high deficits. some countries also need to knock down some of the barriers to the flow of products, to the flow of financials. by doing what? by having better infrastructure, by removing some of the red tape they have, by welcoming foreign direct investment. this is concernly the case in countries like india or brazil where the deepening of the financial markets and the opening up of trade regions would go a long way. and in this vein, china needs to keep moving to a growth that will be less based on credit growth, which has, you know, hit about 180% of gdp at the moment, and more on higher productivity, higher incomes, and higher consumption. that mean what is? liberalizing interest rate, that means ramping up financial sector oversight, opening up protected sectors to private
initiatives, and further strengthening the social safety net. by the way, i encourage you to look at what is happening in what is called the shanghai trade zone. this is a new initiative. very interesting to watch. observers are curious, but not sure of what's happening there. that's a pilot area but a lot of what i just mentioned is probably going to happen. all of these transitions, all of these massive changes are not going be fast, they're not going to be easy. and the countries will likely spend the rest of the decade adjusting to the new reality. they're going to need to cooperate with each other and other economies as well because there are some spillover effects from one domestic policy to other regions of the world. and certainly we will be only too happy to help with that cooperation using one of the three or two or three of our
business segments, if you will, that i described earlier. >> if we look at low income countries, the same is true. if you look around the world at the moment and try to pick the country at the highest growth rate, where will that be? come on? help me. i know the answer. low-income countries moving at very, very fast growth rates at the moment. you will find -- yes, you're right. africa. that's where after emerging asia, because they are emerging asian countries that are a little faster, but the bulk of the solid growth in the last few years has been coming from lower countries, predominantly in sub saharan africa. growth rates over the past
several years has been around and above sometimes 5%. their transition yet is not without risk. the low income countries in a way, they sit between the advanced country rock and the emerging market hub place, more fragility in these regions mean more fragility in low-income countries because they essentially depend for the trade, for the trade in commodities in particular when they're producing resources from what is happening in the other regions. so these countries, they need to take action as well, those that are growing at 5% at the moment. they have to take advantage of that momentum. they need to have enough fiscal reserves to deploy them if necessary. if the crisis hits, you're better off if you have butters, if you build up reserves. beyond that, they need to make growth more inclusive. this is also a key directive for the development of those
countries, including by boosting public investment, making sure all have access to decent health care, education, and finance and that they focus on the inclusion of women in their economy. again, it's not going to happen overnight. it will most likely take a decade or so. and it will require deeper engagement and the support of the international community, including all multilateral institutions amongst which, the imf. okay, before i jump to the financial transition, it's going to be in the season, arab countries in transition. they're going be more open and more inclusive to society. in this region, the economy transition is deeply entwined with social and political transition and it's becoming increasingly challenging and
much of this is wrenching. how can you not be deeply concerned and moved and horrified by what is happening in syria, for instance, where people lose their life, lose their family, lose their home. what does the imf have to do with them being human beings and being concerned about that. we are concerned that the economic situation matters. and we have to help them keep the drum beat for economic reform. this means breaking down vested interest to harness the willingness to invest by the private sector and create jobs for all of those who need them. you remember, i mentioned one out of two of you not having a job in some countries? well, in many of the arab countries in transition, it is the same. a lot of young men and women are not finding the job on the
market. the same is true in many of those countries in transitions. it also means bringing their fiscal deficit down. some of them are running deficits that hit almost hilting the 50% mark. that's an issue that need to be addressed. they need to do it at the right place. they don't have to rush, cutting down on public spending and raising revenues. those societies will not put up with it. they have to do it in the right pace but they have to do it and stick to it as well as they'll receive external financing and not just from the international institutions. we are there. we will continue to hang in there with them as partners, but also from the international community. and in many ways, that transition is one of the most complicated of the ones that i've described and will probably take longer than all of the others. but to succeed, it needs the unwavering support of international -- of the international community.
as i said, we're very engaged. we have a partnership and programs under way in morocco, in jordan, in tunisia. we're doing massive capacity building in libya, that needs it so badly. and we are entering into new negotiations with humana and i'm sure we'll be talking to the egyptian authorities. >>. [ participant off-mic ] >> oh, that's a nice way to introduce my next and final transition. we've looked at the big movements, the big patterns taking place in the economy. they take a different course. they take different shapes. they will require different sets of policies. they all require coordination and cooperation in the country. there is one that is affecting all continents across the board, that is the financial -- the global financial sector that is going through the transition,
that needs go through transition. and that needs to really be serious about it. and under the old model, and -- mr. president, madam president, we're kind enough to remind you that our finance minister in front of the g-7 country and i was appointed in that position in june of 2007. i was hoping to have, you know, a few weeks off in august. as many do, including the french. and guess what? whole four years, there was no august break. markets went down. growth collapsed. lehman hit. on and on and on. in the old model, the one that prevailed, the financial sector took an oversized risk in pursuit of outsized rewards,
causing outsized ruin. and that has really led us to the experience that we've live in the last five years. now, since then, international community has been struggling to build something better. and it is not easy. it means throwing away old blueprints and designing new ones. it means dealing with the perverse incentives of financial firms and the inability or unwillingness of authorities to actually act. now, how is this transition which is happening? how is it doing? in the imf assessment, and i said earlier the current issue about budget and debt ceiling was mission critical, on this one, i would say it's mission not yet finished. higher capital standards that
apply across the board. they are being implemented. we have agreement on new liquidity standards and plans for leverage ratio to keep accessories in check. we have moved forward to find the politically financial institutions, both banks and companies and hold them under standard for both resolution and resolution. but progress is too slow. it is being held back by complexity, but also by delay. and divergence. you know, like all good business, the g-20, for instance, has an action plan. and you take the box as you move on, we've done this, we've done this, we've done that. well, since the g-20 meeting in london, which was the one immediately after the washington one, which started the g-20 head of state, many, many of the boxes have been checked. but where there is delay is in the financial sector reform, which is interesting.
so we have seen delays. key concern, for example, is the lack of progress in establishing effective cross border resolution regimes, frameworks and agreements to unwind the global systematically important institutions and mortgage infrastructures in an orderly way. that was what was missing at the time of lehman, collapse of one, fail collapsed across the board. a good cross border resolution should deal with that. this is a bit late coming. the same is true for the derivatives market reform, where the lack of transparency is still a huge issue. there has been progress. there's been an agreement between the cftc and the europeans on better transparency. but at the end of last year total outstanding drif tifs amounted to $633 trillion of
which only $24 -- 24 trillions, only, were traded on organized exchanges. the rest is huge. it really needs supervision and we need a speedy agreed derivatives reforms between the various markets. another danger zone is shadow banking. i'm sure you heard about that. it's attracting a lot of riskier activity. in the u.s., the nonbanking sector is now twice the size of a banking sector. and in china, half of the new credit that is issued, this year, has been extended through the shadow banking system. okay? so the shadow banking system, working on maturities but little in the way of supervision and regulation. there's been progress with the
adoption of principles for proposals for regular latering securities, lending and repos. we're not saying shadow banking should be eliminated. it can be helpful. but it needs be a lot more transparent and much more overseen. f that's the delay. how about divergence. the problem here is there are divergence in the financial sector. it's like pulling a fabric in different directions. because money moves around in man know seconds. but if there are divergence, you create arbitrage diversions and you really endanger the whole system. we have already seen some of it in some discrepancies in capital requirements, for instance, different interpretations of the
ratios. different countries have taken different approaches to business market restrictions such as the volcker rule in the united states. so putting this all together in a globalized world is a bit of a headache and yet it must be done. nothing less than global financial stability depends on it. is that something that is just incumbent on the regulators, on the policy makers? no, the financial sector has to also make some serious decision. it is their responsibility. it's the survival and the continuation of the growth of the activity. the new rules are changing the economics of banking. and banking will probably change. it is likely that some of the largest banking institutions will not do us much by way of financing infrastructure projects, for instance, or project financing. or mortgage lending.
and it's very likely that the footprint of those international banking institutions will change. we're seeing that at the moment. now, this must be taken into account when designing the new framework. what is important is that the financial sector stays focused on what it's expected to do for the economy. it should serve the financial economy -- it should serve the economy, it should provide the financing, it should mature money, it should move it around. it should finance investments and innovation. old habits die hard. so it will take time. but it can be managed, particularly if all parties unite around a shared goal. that means industry and regulators accepting core responsibility for the public good, that is financial stability. it means countries acting in harmony so that the new financial framework looks more
like a color-coded mosaic rather than a clash of colors. a monet painting rather than a kandinsky or a pollack. is that mission impossible? no. [ speaking french ] united, we can get there. let me conclude. in those two major transitions that i've tried to display to you, economic and financial. the international community faces a common challenge. make sure all can gain from globalization and prosper in our increasingly interconnected world. you will be reading now and then in the next few weeks or month, books that are beginning to be published about the virtue of, you know, retiring to your own turf, less opening of the markets, more protection. more restrictions, reindustrialization here and
there. that's because the global frnls crisis has shaken the faith of many in the virtues of being open and engaged in the world. if we managed these transitions well, in the best possible way, it will demonstrate the benefits of interconnectedness, which had been enormously beneficial so far. the reason why so many people had been lifted out of poverty in the low-income countries, the reason the low-income countries will be the frontier countries of tomorrow is precisely because of the openness of the markets, the openness of trade, the liquidity and fluidity of movements. now, this can only be done if countries work together. in the belief that mutual help will be the best form of self help. you say in latin, [ speaking latin ] don't need to translate, but
just in case, for all and for each. what is good for all is going to benefit me. now, as i said at the outset, this is actually the function of the imf. our job is to help countries manage transitions. we have done it in the past. the imf was set up in 1945, right after the second world war. and the first country to have a part -- a program with the imf was actually my country, france. so we've helped many countries in transition after the second world war pretty much all over europe. after the iron curtain came down, we held all of the central and eastern european countries that moved and transitioned toward a different model and we're doing it again for the arab countries in transition. we're helping the low income countries in transition. we're helping the euroarrow countries that are going through a transition. that's what we are doing.
we will continue helping. i began with a quote from emerson. i would like to finish with a quote from one of my favorite french writers, he said -- i'm translating -- he said don't walk in front of me, i may not follow. don't fall behind me, i may not lead. but walk beside me and be my friend. now, this is what i see and what i want the imf to do, to continue to partner with those countries that are going through this period of great transition. thank you. [ applause ] >> i can have a drink now. >> i'm professor foster, irene
foster. i reach in the department of economics. and it's my great pleasure to have a large number of very bright, interested, passionate students, some of whom are -- some of them are going. >> i think it's the older guys who are leaving. it's only at 11:10, they're all here. they -- they listened, they are passionate about making a change in the world so we thank you for your very inspiring talk to us today. i understand this was also the theme of the meeting. and it's a challenge to talk to countries about changing their patterns of economic growth, thinking about how they structure their financial sector so thank you very much. we have a few minutes when madam legarde has agreed to answer some questions. if you are a student, come to the microphone, tell us your name, ask us your question.
while people are coming to the microphone, i think i have to -- here's a question right here. >> hi, i was actually wondering, where do you see the leadership of strong economies like singapore with regards to future economic growth in southeast asia and the asia pacific region. and thank you for your talk. >> thank you. good morning. singapore is actually, you know, in a good geographical spot and it's clearly one of the advanced economies in that part of the world. asia pacific is fascinating because it has some of the most advanced economies, quite a few low-income countries and the small pacific lands as well. as an area, it's fascinating and full of challenges. singapore is hosting an interesting initiative that was take bin some of the countries in the area, where they've decided -- actually, in coordination with the imf. they've decided to pool some of
infrastructure that was helpful to unlock the huge potential of the -- of the other two are minor. >> hi. i'm at the school of international affairs. coming from mexico city, i'm interest in what do you think is the role of latin american countries in the global economy and what do you think are the challenges to become dominant in the world? >> the latin american countries have come a long way collectively.
all latin american countries, you know, have either significant resources, are in the process of good developments, and they face different challenges. some of them are very much dependent on commodities, i think of chile, for instance, which is largely dependent on copper and where the price of commodities is a significant influence on chile. some of them are going to be major in their own rights, brazil being one of them. there are strong economies that need to look at the risk of overheating, actually. chile growing steadily, they should be careful and use the monetary policy and the fiscal policy i referred to earlier. the same is true with peru,
where there is a fear of overheating as well. a whole continent is on its way. and more than emerging. >> good morning. i'm a senior in the school of international affairs. >> good morning. >> good morning. thank you for coming. we appreciate it. my question pertains to something you said in your speech. you talked about the 2008 collapse. now that as you say the sort of shadow the fog of the financial crisis is wearing off, where do you think is the appropriate time to start tightening monetary policy even though at the mere mention of it the economies seem to tumble. >> you know, i think that -- we think that tightening is way down the road. we're not there, by tightening, you mean increasing interest rates, essentially.
but tapering, which would mean lower programs of purchases by the fed is something that should be coming if the economy improves. certainly the fact that it would be associated with specific references, criteria, and the indication of how the economy is progressing and how stable and sustainable the progress is in that vein. in our view, gradual, aligned in criteria. they should be work related as possible. there should be a dialogue with others. the decisions made here can have spillover effectings, downturn or instability of volatility can backfire. it's very, very interconnected.
it fully important that the dialogue exists. >> thank you for coming out. i'm a sophomore in the international affairs here. and my question is regarding the importance of sub saharan africa and the growth coming out of there. many people are concerned with the political instability of the country and the corruption in that region. so i'm curious if you think that by focusing on economics that that would kind of eliminate the corruption or should we be dealing with the politics and the corruption first before we can feel safe about investing in that area and looking at economic growth? >> by conviction and training. things that become exposed suddenly become unbearable and cannot be justified. and transparency is a two-way street.
equally, i believe that we need to continue supporting the reforms, helping with the fiscal monetary policies and reform of the financial sector in order to help the economies move along. i think economic growth can be one way -- one of the ways, not the only one, to actually address this plague that really hurts those economies. >> we have time for one more question? >> yes. >> thank you. >> hello. >> i'm a student of finance at gwb business school. the economy is the largest specialty growth especially for the investments and labor. china has a lot of population. our prime minister established
shanghai on its own. my question is that -- in your opinion, what can you say about opportunities in china for the next five or ten years? thanks. >> i don't have the number on the top of my head. i wouldn't be surprised. investors making decisions are seeing opportunities in the whole of china. the reason i mentioned the shanghai initiative is i think it's one of the few to experiment -- that's the difficulties and give out what will happen in that free trade soon.
the degree of freedom and the liberalization that is announced certainly entices investors to focus on that particular zone. i think the equally the monetary policy of the chinese monetary authorities were bringing the critics, to avoid the risk of boom and in the real estate sector is very, very welcome. thank you. >> please join me in thanking madam lagarde for spending her precious time with us today. don't forget, she's watching you from her window. so please study. thank you very much.
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